Opinion poll projects landslide win for LDF
74% want LDF in power; 45% see VS as CM
- Anupama Murali, Nidhi Cherian, Sinju C.Iype & Shyam S.
An exclusive city - wide opinion poll reveals that the Left Democratic Front is all set to sweep the polls. Cutting across the age and sex barrier, V.S. Achuthanandan is perceived as the best chief ministerial candidate.
Back at the Helm
The opinion poll projects that the CPI (M) - led LDF are all set to regain power after a gap of five years, with 74% of the respondents favouring their return. There is a clear dissent among the public with 65% of the respondents stating their unhappiness with the performance of the UDF government. The achievements of the UDF government like ‘Akshaya’ e – literacy project, ‘Global Investors Meet’ (GIM) held at Kochi, pay revisions for government employees, granting permission to start private engineering and medical colleges etc does not offset the failures in tsunami relief, governance, law and order situation etc. The Oommen Chandy regime now faces the Herculean task of not only defending his governance but also fighting the anti – incumbency wave.
As expected V.S. Achuthanandan emerged as the best chief ministerial candidate with 45% of the respondents opting for him. In contrast, despite the anti – incumbency wave, 26% of the respondents feels that Oommen Chandy is the best man to lead the state. Despite the veteran politicians winning a majority of the votes for the best chief ministerial candidate, the poll reveals that the student community in Thiruvananthapuram desires for young politicians at the top by voting for Dr. M.K.Muneer and Ganesh Kumar.
Politically Conscious
With just two weeks to go for the polls, 90% of the respondents claimed that they will be exercising their franchise. Out of the dissenting 10%, 40% have no faith in the political system and the remaining 60% feel that the politicians do not live up to their expectations. These dissenting opinions were raised mainly by housewives revealing their attitude towards the current political scenario.
Another outcome of the poll is the revelation that 81% of the respondents believed that their votes really mattered in deciding the outcome of the elections. Only a microscopic minority comprising of the old aged population answered in negative. One of the thought provoking arguments raised during the poll was that, it is not the vote of the common man, but the money and the muscle power of the business class and entrepreneurs that decide the outcome of the poll.
Opinions were divided when asked whether the respondents voted for the party or for the candidates. Both the factors are taken into consideration by 43% of the respondents. Irrespective of the candidate fielded, 25% votes only for the party in which they believe; while 29% votes for the candidate based on merit and not for the party.
A majority of the respondents (73%) think that the qualities of the politicians of today are worse than those of yesteryears. This feeling is strong across all the sections of the society. Respondents who believed that the quality today is better than in the past and the quality these days is as good as it was in the past is 13% and 11% respectively.
Burning Issues
The most important problem facing the state today according to the opinion poll is unemployment (16% of the total votes). The malaise of educated unemployed youth is a major crisis in the state. According to NSSO (1999-00), the total rural unemployment rate in the state is 21.7% and the total urban unemployment rate is 19.1%. The state needs to exploit more vociferously the various schemes implemented by the Union Government like the National Food for Work Scheme, National Rural Employment Guarantee Act etc.
Another major problem facing the state today is the poor performance of the agricultural sector (12% of the total votes). The agricultural sector in the state is of an informal nature. Out of the total agricultural area, 53.39% of the land holdings are marginal holdings. Large agricultural holdings in the state comprise of only 6.45%. As a result, the marginal farmers are in a state of perpetual poverty and backwardness. Farmer suicide is another serious issue that has plagued the state. Bailing out the farmers from the debt trap is a challenge for the next government.
Industrial backwardness (11%) is also a very serious problem for the state. High cost of production, traditional labour intensive nature of the industries and non conducive climate for promoting industrial investment are some other reasons for the backwardness of industries. Lack of experienced labour force is another major bottleneck that needs to be overcome in attracting investment to the state.
There is ambiguity in the LDF election manifesto as far as attracting foreign investment or domestic investment is concerned. On the other hand the UDF election manifesto targets investment worth a lakh crore rupees. Realistically, if the state manages to attract one – tenth of the targeted investment, it will be a revolutionary achievement. Infrastructure is another issue that figured prominently in the opinion polls. Good infrastructure is utmost important not only for the agriculture, industry and service sector, but also generates a lot of employment opportunities in the state.
Continuous deterioration in the quality of services provided in public educational and public health institutions is another grave issue. Even though CUSAT is to be upgraded to the status of an IIT, the state of higher education in Kerala is pathetic and needs to be improved. Incidents like rural Keralites forgetting the ability to read and write has also begun to pop up. Re-educating them is another challenge facing the next government.
The opinion poll suggests, time and again the politicians have failed the people of the state. Rather than the performance of the government, it is often the anti – incumbency factor that decides the next government.
The student community suggests proper measures should be taken immediately without any delay to improve infrastructure, industry, agriculture & IT sector in the state. The state should draw inspiration from the performances of the neighbouring states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh in development. The state has a mountain to climb if it has at least any dream of catching up with the top performing states in the country. The state needs to act immediately, so that God’s Own Country remains truly God’s own country.
Note: The Thiruvananthapuram city wide opinion poll was conducted on April 4, 2006. In all, 100 voters belonging to different age groups were interviewed. The opinion poll has not made any forecasts of the seats in the assembly election. With 2 weeks to go for the election, there is a huge probability that the opinions may swing. Tabulation work has been done by calculating either average or weighted average as considered appropriate.
[This is an exclusive survey that appeared in VARTHA, the lab journal released by the morning batch of Institute of Journalism, Press Club, Thiruvananthapuram]
